Draft Growth Scenarios - October/November 2010

Three growth scenarios were developed in October and November, 2010 for review by the community and various agencies. These scenarios depicted three possible future growth patterns for the City of Lincoln and Lancaster County. In each case, the future population of 413,000 people in the county was accommodated, but the direction and pattern of growth varied. The scenarios were analyzed by local, state and federal agencies and the analysis was posted on this site. For further information on assumptions and the analysis process, please read this handout.

Scenario A: Multi-Directional Growth Scenario
Draft Growth Scenario A

Draft Growth Scenario A
Urban and Countywide maps

  • Future growth demands met in multiple directions
  • New housing will continue trend of 70% single family and 30% multi-family
  • 96% of new housing will be located on the edges with 2,000 infill units in the Downtown Core and throughout the community
  • Continued 3 units per gross acre density for new urban development
  • Approximately 26 square miles of land added to urban area in Tier I
  • Rural acreage development in multiple directions
  • Recognizes vacant land in rural county zoned for acreages, but not necessarily other land currently designated for acreages in 2030 Comprehensive Plan
  • Approximately 9 additional square miles of rural land area is identified to satisfy the next 50 years of demand for acreages
Scenario B: Stevens Creek Growth Scenario
Draft Growth Scenario B

Draft Growth Scenario B
Urban and Countywide maps

  • Future growth demands met mainly in the Stevens Creek watershed and in currently identified areas to the south of the existing city
  • Growth from 2040 to 2060 almost exclusively in Stevens Creek
  • Southwest area of current plan no longer identified as a growth area
  • Potential cost savings for utility infrastructure compared to multi-directional scenario
  • Approximately 26 square miles of land added to urban area in Tier I
  • Rural acreage development accommodated in the eastern and southern areas of the county where water services available
  • Recognizes vacant land in rural county zoned for acreages, but not necessarily other land currently designated for acreages in 2030 Comprehensive Plan
  • Approximately 9 additional square miles of rural land area is identified to satisfy the next 50 years of demand for acreages
Scenario C: Compact Growth Scenario
Draft Growth Scenario C

Draft Growth Scenario C
Urban and Countywide maps

  • Approximately 1/3 of future residential demand is accommodated within the existing city
  • 2/3 of residential demand accommodated on the edges of the community
  • Infill development to occur in the Downtown Core area (7,500 units) and throughout the community (9,500)
  • Future split of new housing unit types is 50% single family and 50% multi-family
  • Higher density of 4 residential units per gross acre for new urban edge development
  • Approximately 14 square miles of land added to urban area in Tier I
  • Rural acreage development accommodated by directing acreage development inside the planning jurisdictions of those small towns that allow for acreages
  • Recognizes vacant land in rural county zoned for acreages, but not necessarily other land currently designated for acreages in 2030 Comprehensive Plan
  • No additional land is designated for acreages

The Process