Recommended Growth Scenario - November 17, 2010

A future growth scenario describes the pattern of growth over a period of time and defines the limit to which city services would be provided, in this case, by 2040. Throughout September, October, and early November of 2010, the Planning Department received comment from various local and state agencies, interest groups, and private citizens, as well as input from the LPlan2040 Advisory Committee (LPAC) regarding the three Growth Scenarios described below. (View the public input report.) Planning staff used this input to develop a recommended Growth Scenario which was presented to the LPAC on November 17, 2010 during their regular meeting. This Recommended Growth Scenario is a draft that was adopted in October 2011, with some small amendments.

Recommended Growth Scenario

Recommended Urban Growth Scenario

Recommended Growth Scenario

Recommended County Growth Scenario


  • 126,000 additional residents in Lancaster County by 2040 that will need 47,500 new urban residential units and 4,500 rural and small town residential units
  • 83.5% of urban residential demand accommodated on the edges of the community (39,500 units)
  • Approximately 16.5% of future urban residential demand is accommodated within the existing city (8,000 units) concentrated in the Downtown/Antelope Valley area and along commercial corridors and in commercial areas
  • Future split of new housing unit types is 60% single family and 40% multi-family
  • Future growth demands met in multiple directions
  • Continued 3 units per gross acre density for new edge development
  • Approximately 28 square miles of land added to urban area in Tier I
  • Provides for approximately a 7 year supply of residential units that act as a reserve lot inventory
  • Rural acreage development in multiple directions using land suitability index totaling 9 additional square miles of rural land to satisfy the next 50 years of demand for acreages
  • Recognizes existing vacant land in rural county zoned for acreages
  • 70% to 80% of acreage development expected to continue to occur in the agricultural area by using techniques such as farmstead splits, AG clusters, 20 acre parcels and existing grandfathered lots
  • Urban growth from 2040 to 2060 is allowed in multiple directions but is concentrated in Stevens Creek and along planned South Beltway
  • Potential cost savings for utility infrastructure compared to current 2030 Comprehensive Plan